New data from Angus Reid USA finds those winds may be blowing in the Democrats’ favor as campaigning heats up. The Democrats lead by 16 points over the Republicans in House of Representatives vote intention. The Democrats’ ranks are bolstered by a high retention rate of 2024 Harris voters as well as pickups from 2024 Trump voters (10% intend to vote Democrat in the midterms) and self-identified Independents (57%).
The Republicans face a challenge in winning over voters behind an unpopular President. Three-in-five (61%) Americans say they disapprove of Trump’s performance. The one-third (34%) who say they approve are mostly comprised of ardent self-identified MAGA Republicans (94% approve) and a majority of non-MAGA Republicans (59%). Sizable majorities of Independents (72%) and Democrats (92%) disapprove of Trump.
Trump Approval
Age & Gender
Partisan Divide
House Vote Intention
Vote by Affiliation
Methodology
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Trump approval
Three-in-five disapprove of Trump as the midterms approach
The second term of President Donald Trump is entering a key period. The midterm elections have the potential to upset the balance of power in both the Senate and House of Representatives, which would dramatically increase the political resistance to the White House’s policies.
Trump enters this crucial period with high disapproval. Three-in-five (61%) say they disapprove of Trump’s performance as President, outnumbering by nearly two-to-one those who approve (34%).
Age and gender
Men more positive about the president than women
Approaching half of all age groups say they strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, while men are more likely to be positive about the president (40%) than women (29%).
Partisan divide
Most MAGA, majority of non-MAGA Republicans approve
There is a sharp political line on views of Trump. His most ardent supporters are those who identify as part of the MAGA movement, of whom nearly all (94%) say they approve of his performance. Non-MAGA Republicans still approve of Trump at a majority level (59%), but there are two-in-five (38%) who say they disapprove of his performance.
Most Democrats (92%) and approaching three-quarters of Independents (72%) disapprove of the President’s performance.
House vote intention
Democrats hold a 16-point lead among registered voters
There may be a blue wave over the horizon for Trump and the Republicans, with Democrats holding a double-digit advantage in midterm House vote intention that grows further once undecided voters are asked which party they lean toward.
Among registered voters, the Democrats (56%) have a 16-point advantage over the Republicans (40%) in vote intention for the House of Representatives.
Vote by affiliation
Non-MAGA Republicans and Independents drive the Democratic lead
While enthusiasm among MAGA-aligned Republicans remains high, one-in-10 non-MAGA Republicans would support the Democrat in their own congressional district. This, alongside a much higher preference for Democrats among those who identify as Independent, are the drivers of the Democratic lead.
About this survey
Methodology and downloads
Angus Reid USA conducted an online survey from September 19–25, 2026 among a representative randomized sample of 1,205 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/– 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by Angus Reid USA.
